Distribution & bias

Is the model's output distribution healthy, are confidence scores trustworthy, and is there subgroup skew?

Actual positive rate

0.63

Predicted positive rate

0.49

Prediction bias

-0.13

under-flags

ECE (calibration)

0.14

Brier 0.15

Confidence & calibration

confidence histogram — Confidence distribution for current predictions.

A reliability curve below the diagonal = over-confident model. ECE is the average gap between confidence and observed accuracy; keep it under 0.10 before letting confidence auto-route cases.

Subgroup skew

subgroup recall — Lower-recall segments should be routed to review or targeted for data refresh.

Segment	Actual +rate	Predicted +rate	Bias
Peer-to-peer payment app	0.77	0.43	-0.343
Cryptocurrency wallet	0.67	0.33	-0.333
Buy now pay later	0.66	0.37	-0.293
Mortgage	0.66	0.49	-0.170
Credit card	0.63	0.48	-0.146
Savings account	0.59	0.44	-0.146
Checking account	0.60	0.46	-0.136
Student loan	0.63	0.50	-0.129
Auto loan	0.66	0.54	-0.118
Money transfer	0.65	0.55	-0.097
Debt collection	0.60	0.52	-0.080